Among the discussions, the urgency of action on methane emissions stood out, a gas whose global warming potential is 86 times greater than that of CO₂ over a 20-year horizon.
ABREN
Photo of Yuri Schmitke with UN General Assembly President Annalena Baerbock discussing the need to change the methodology for quantifying methane emissions in the waste sector.
COP30, held in Belém, brought together 60,000 participants, including heads of state, negotiators, experts, companies, scientific organizations, and civil society entities. With nearly 200 national delegations in attendance, the meeting established itself as a historic milestone in the global climate discussion, especially since it took place in the heart of the Amazon. The main topics covered included climate adaptation, mitigation, financial mechanisms, biodiversity protection, and, above all, the construction of a “roadmap” for the progressive elimination of fossil fuels — a topic that, although central, will continue to be negotiated until COP31. It is essential to highlight that the COP is not limited to the annual two-week event: the COP30 presidency remains active until COP31 in Turkey, monitoring, reviewing, and negotiating the advances necessary to implement the commitments made.
Among the discussions, the urgency of action on methane emissions stood out, a gas whose global warming potential is 86 times greater than that of CO₂ over a 20-year horizon. Methane was reiterated as the most strategic greenhouse gas for rapid mitigation, being identified by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) as the most effective way to reduce warming in the short term.
Another important milestone during COP30 was the launch of the Global Methane Status Report 2025, an international reference document on the evolution of global methane emissions and opportunities for mitigation in the short term. The report synthesizes recent scientific evidence, including satellite-based studies, atmospheric measurements, national inventories, and sectoral diagnostics, highlighting that the waste sector remains one of the most critical and undermonitored in the world. The publication reinforces that rapidly reducing methane emissions is the most effective strategy for limiting global warming in the coming decades, directly converging with the guidelines presented by ABREN at the conference.
In this context, ABREN — represented by its Executive President, Yuri Schmitke — played a decisive role at COP30 by providing the Conference Presidency with unprecedented and highly relevant data on the underreporting of methane emissions from landfills in Brazil. Several studies supported by satellite observations, such as GHGSat and Carbon Mapper, show that actual emissions are much higher than those officially reported. In a recent analysis, it was observed that, even under a conservative approach, satellite-measured emissions were, on average, three times higher than the values reported by Brazilian landfills to the UNFCCC.
A similar scenario is repeated in other countries. Data on the United States indicate that actual landfill emissions may be, on average, 2.7 times higher than those reported by the EPA, with studies showing persistent over-emissions and emissions of up to 6 tons of methane per hour in some landfills. These findings reinforce the conclusion that inventories based solely on emission factors and theoretical models do not capture the actual variability of field operations. In this regard, ABREN formally proposed to the COP30 Presidency that the methodology for calculating methane emissions from landfills be revised, mandatorily incorporating satellite data as an independent verification tool.
Another critical point discussed by ABREN at COP30 was the use of distorted data and unrealistic methodologies presented by organizations such as GAIA, Global Methane Hub, and CCAC/UNEP. These entities advocated for the possibility of Brazil diverting 78% of its municipal solid waste from landfills through an investment of US$2.5 billion. However, this estimate has no technical or operational basis. Practical reality shows that, even under ideal conditions, composting and anaerobic digestion of organic waste are unlikely to divert more than 30% of the total generated, due to the physical-chemical, logistical, and sanitary characteristics of Brazilian MSW.
ABREN warned that insisting on unrealistic models of landfill diversion puts Brazil at risk of repeating the mistakes of countries such as Spain, which, even with heavy investment in recycling, still sends approximately 50% of its waste to landfills. In Madrid, one of Europe’s largest landfills is a critical methane super-emitter, according to data from Carbon Mapper — a situation similar to that observed in Caieiras (SP), Guarulhos (SP), Mauá (SP), and Nova Iguaçu (RJ), all identified as major emitters through robust satellite plumes.
ABREN reinforced during COP30 that, given the technical impossibility of diverting most waste to composting or recycling, Brazil urgently needs to adopt waste-to-energy recovery to treat the non-recyclable fraction. Countries that have widely adopted this solution, such as Germany, Sweden, and Japan, have drastically reduced fugitive methane emissions, eliminated dumps, minimized dependence on landfills, and increased energy security. Studies presented by ABREN show that Brazil has 32% greater methane generation potential than the US due to the higher organic fraction of its waste, which further aggravates the risks of not controlling emissions.
Another relevant fact is that Brazil has an estimated average methane capture efficiency in landfills of only 12%, while the US achieves about 48% in facilities monitored by the LMOP program. With such a difference, it is clear that relying exclusively on landfills, even so-called “sanitary” ones, is not a strategy compatible with short-term climate goals.
ABREN’s actions during COP30 reinforced that the country will only be able to align itself with the Paris Agreement goals if it thoroughly reforms its waste sector, incorporating WtE technologies and revising the national emissions methodology to reflect the reality detected by satellites. The official contribution presented to the COP30 Presidency requested that Brazil lead the way, on the road to COP31, in incorporating more modern and transparent methodologies, using satellite monitoring as a global verification standard.
With this, ABREN positions itself as an essential technical actor to guide robust policies in the waste sector, advocating solutions aligned with international best practices and scientific rigor. COP30 was just the beginning: until COP31, it will be up to Brazil—and particularly its COP Presidency—to lead advances in climate governance of solid waste, ensuring that the ecological transition is based on science, technology, and realistic climate responsibility.
Yuri Schmitke, Executive President of ABREN and Vice President of Global WtERT
